It has been apparent for most of Trump’s presidency that regardless what he does or says, regardless how outrageous, how unprofessional, regardless whether he is fact-checked and shown to have lied, and certainly regardless what the mainstream (non-conservative) media say, Trump’s core base of support believes him, and Congressional Republicans either aggressively support him or stay silent. So much so that one could say that his base believes in him.
A new poll published in The New York Times verifies this fact, but shows that his infallibility among his core base is weakening. The poll shows that the vast majority of all Americans trust medical scientists and the CDC to provide accurate information about the coronavirus. 90/83% of Democrats, and 75/71% of Republicans.
In interpreting this data, since Trump’s core base is usually said to be about 31% of the electorate, and self-described Republicans have recently wavered between 25 - 30%, one can say that virtually all Republicans are in his core base, meaning they have strongly approved of his performance.
The poll verifies that the trust of Trump among Republicans is still high. Although Republican say their trust in medical scientists and the CDC is high, their trust in Dr. Fauci, who has openly contradicted Trump on many occasions is only 51% while their trust in Trump’s providing accurate information about the virus is 66%. Their trust in information from the national news media is a dismal 7%.
Since medical scientists, and the CDC, routinely dispute Trump’s statements about the virus and the government’s response to the virus, it indicates that for a large percentage of his base, they believe in him regardless what their mind tells them. The explanation for Fauci getting a much lower trust score that medicate scientists, is that he openly, albeit tactfully, disputes Trump’s statements, often right after Trump has said something, and on the same stage. He’s in Trump’s face. Many in his base don’t like that.
The good news in this otherwise bleak report is that a good chunk of Trump’s core base (34%) do not trust him to provide accurate information. This is in sync with various national polls that show that Trump’s support is slipping within his base. For example, in a recent Economist/YouGov poll, his“strongly approve” job performance rating is 65% of Republicans. And given the importance that the pandemic will have in people’s decision making process come election time, this will hurt Trump even as he tries to stoke the fires of his base.
The election is still more than 4 months away. But the facts on the ground and the polls give one a reasonable basis for hope that the election will be decisive and not a cliff-hanger.
No comments:
Post a Comment