The Constitutional Crisis to Come

Donald Trump has set out on a course to radically reshape our government and our democracy.  In doing so, he is and will be violating many laws, both those passed by Congress and those in the Constitution.  

With a compliant Congress, more than 100 suits have been filed in Federal court to stop what Trump is doing.  Many judges have issued temporary retraining orders advising Trump to stop his actions.   It is unknown to what extent Trump is respecting those orders.  In at least two instances, the court has found that Trump has not followed the orders and has restated very clearly that he must do so.

The normal process in civil cases like these is that the lower court order would not be stayed while the matter is being appealed.  And appeal Trump certainly will, as he has recently said that if he is acting to save the country, he is not breaking any law—even if, in fact, he is acting contrary to the law.

The first two cases have now been appealed to the Supreme Court; one concerns Trump's wanting to fire the head of the Office of General Council, an independent watchdog agency with a term set by Congress and not serving at the President's pleasure.  The other concerns Trump's freezing $2 billion in foreign aid payments.

One would hope in these and other power-grabbing cases, both Justices Roberts and Barrett, and perhaps Gorsuch, would join the 3 liberal judges in declaring that Trump had broken the law and acted illegally.

The question then is, "What will Trump do?"  In the first case, he would have no choice but to abide by the Court's ruling because he has no way of forcing the person out of office.  But in the second and other cases, although he has said that he will abide by the Court's ruling, his other recent statement noted above and those of Vice President Vance raise a question regarding that.  

What happens if he doesn't abide by the Court's ruling?  The possible scenarios are not pretty.  If the Executive branch does not submit to the Judicial branch of government as foreseen in the Constitution's checks and balances, we would indeed be in a crisis.  It could come down to the same question as in other dictatorships—the military.  Does the military support the President or does it support our democracy and Constitution?

One can only hope that Trump is not so full of himself that when push comes to shove, he will relent and not foment a civil war.

Proof that Trump Has Deceived His Middle and Working Class Supporters

In his flurry of executive orders since taking office, Trump has not taken one action that will help the middle class or the working class.  ALL of his orders are designed to either benefit big business and the rich, who have great influence with Trump, or to throw red meat to the Right’s culture warriors.

The orders concerning immigration and borders will not help.  Trump says that getting rid of illegal immigrants will help the middle and working class, but it will not.  It will not make this country safer (because the data shows that illegal immigrants are not the source of the crime problem).  It will not make more jobs available, because illegal immigrants take jobs that no other American wants.  What these orders will do is result in an increase in prices of both the food we eat and many other products because illegal immigrants are vital to these areas of commerce.

The orders concerning international trade, business, and the economy will have no beneficial impact on the middle class and working class.  He has ordered federal agencies to review their policies so as to reduce consumer prices, but they have no control over prices.  Their regulations may provide some justification for prices being what they are, but removing regulations will not only harm the public but will not guarantee any price reductions.  Instead, corporations will see any decrease in regulation as an opportunity to increase profits.  As for increasing tariffs, there is general agreement that the tariffs and the trade wars that will accompany such action will result in an increase in prices consumers pay for a wide variety of products.

The orders concerning climate, energy, and the environment will not help.  Trump argues that increasing production of fossil fuels will decrease gas prices at the pump.  While that is a possibility, it will have no impact for at least several years.  And it will do so at a cost of greatly increasing the physical forces that are leading to climate disorder and an increase in the intensity of natural disasters.

The orders concerning diversity, transgender rights, and civil rights will not help.  In fact, they will hurt the middle class and the working class.  A large proportion of the American middle class (41%) and working class (45%) are not White—there is substantial overlap.  Repealing or prohibiting all efforts regarding diversity, equity, and inclusion will harm those people.  So while these orders may well help Trump’s middle class White supporters, it will harm his non-White supporters.

Orders regarding Federal workers and government structure will not help.  Trump officials have told workers at the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau to "halt any supervision or examination activity and all stakeholder engagement" and the offices have been closed for the coming week;  this is not good for consumers, i.e. the middle and working class.  Trump officials claim that the hiring freeze on the IRS will help the middle class and small businesses by reducing the number of audits, making it sound like the IRS was on a mission to audit the middle class, which is not true.  In general, if Trump is successful in drastically cutting the federal work force and cutting Federal funds going to the states, it is bound to have a negative impact on the middle class and working class because some will find themselves out of work and many will be impacted by a reduction in government services which they use.

The orders on health care will not help.  On the contrary, they will definitely harm the middle class and working class.  By repealing President Biden’s orders making it easier to enroll in Medicaid, be covered by the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and lower prescription drug costs, Trump is harming millions of middle class and working class Americans.

The orders on foreign policy, national security and America First will not help.  And they are a slap in the face to all the Muslim-Americans who voted for Trump after being assured by Trump envoys that he was sensitive to Palestinian needs.  He has deceived them.

Bottom line, Trump has, not surprisingly given his history, let his middle and working class supporters down in every way but the culture wars.  He has done nothing to improve their financial situation and instead his actions are likely to increase prices again, which is a major policy reversal of the promise he made which was the reason why many people voted for him.

The middle and working class people who voted for Trump, together with the Muslim-Americans he deceived, should take to the streets and protest Trump's deceit and mendacity.  He used these people to win, and now has dumped them as irrelevant to his aims.