Yes, the Coronavirus Is Different from the Flu, but Acting out of Fear Is Not Smart.

I live in Massachusetts, in the Berkshires ... 7 cases as of today.  When I went to the supermarket today, the place looked like it had been ransacked.  The shelves were almost bare of canned goods, paper products, broth … all kinds of products.  What is going on?

The President has basically said, what’s the big deal?  Each year we see deaths from the seasonal flu of between 12,000 and 60,000, but the media mentions not a word about it.  In this case, even if you look at China, deaths are at around 3,100, Italy 600.  Why is the media making such a big deal about this?  It reminds me of what they do these days with bad weather events; everything is catastrophized.

There is one big difference between the seasonal flu and the coronavirus: there is a vaccine each year for the flu.  Millions of people, around half of the U.S. population, get their flu shot each year.  Because of that, people feel comfortable engaging in all normal activities during the flu season.  And because of that, there is no slowdown in production, travel, events, etc. and thus no major economic consequence, despite all the deaths.

But because there is no vaccine for the coronavirus, it’s an unknown, and it can result in death, albeit in only 1-2% of cases, people are very leery of going about their usual activities.  Especially since undoubtedly many people are walking around infected because they don’t know they are as testing is hard to come by and there is much confusion.  This fear, and the fear of countries, leads to drastic measures.  It is these measures, not the deaths or illness, that cause the economic disruptions that investors fear.

A recent article raised the question, specifically regarding China, whether the “cure” of lockdowns is worse than the danger.  That is a very good question.  If people went about their business as usual while being very conscientious about washing their hands frequently and thoroughly, you would almost certainly have more spread than with a lockdown, and more deaths,   But you would have to have 500,000 cases of virus before hitting the lowest number of deaths from the seasonal flu.

It really comes down to fear … on the part of individuals who don’t want to get sick and possibly die, and by governments that don’t want to see their citizens overwhelmed with this new “plague.”

If I look at the situation rationally, on balance I would say that healthy people should go about their business as usual unless they live in a virus “hot spot,” but they should maintain social distancing, that is not go to crowded bars or theaters ... actually such places should be closed ,,, and not go on a cruise or fly in an airplane, both of which pack people in intimate quarters.  And they should wash their hands often and thoroughly.  If you use public transportation, wear a mask.

People who think they may be infected or have had contact with someone who is or may be should be tested immediately.  People who are infected or think they may be should self-isolate so that they do not transfer the virus to others and they should wear a mask, both at home and if they do go out.  Shutting down the country is not necessary if people act responsibly.

Think about it.  You have a greater chance of dying or being seriously injured from a car accident or the flu than from the corona virus.  You should act accordingly.  For once, Trump has the right idea, even if for the wrong reason — his political self-preservation.