The Present Holding Pattern

I haven't written a post in a month.   The reason is that there is really nothing new to post about.   

1.   Republicans are being true to their conversion to Trumpism, whether at the national or state level (although it is more rabid at the state  level).   In Congress, they are either just interested in blocking Biden's agenda, regardless of the interests of their constituents, whose interests they are supposed to represent.   Or they continue to further the falsehood that Biden won the election fraudulently and the January 6 storming of the capitol had nothing to do with Trump and the people in the riot were just patriots. 

I would love to see a video that juxtaposed Speaker McCarthy's statements on January 6 and immediately thereafter, and his statements now.   You can't even call it a shift.   It's a total reversal from truth to lies.  The man and his party have no shame, no ethics.

2.   The virus is doing its thing, and the millions of unvaccinated people in the US are enabling it to have another surge with the Delta variant which is causing, in areas with low vaccination rates, numbers of cases to rival the worst part of the pandemic.   And when these unvaccinated people get infected and travel to areas with high vaccination rates and partake in crowded indoor activities (restaurants, bars, dance clubs), even those vaccinated (who aren't wearing masks anymore) get infected. 

There is no indication that anything much will change on this front.   Many people who choose not to be vaccinated are adamant.   Some are undecided still, and so perhaps they will get the shots, but the majority are in the first group. 

Bottom line, while we were never going to be free of the virus, it looks like our return to normal in most areas of the country is a thing of the past.   Even the vaccinated will have to wear a mask indoors, certainly in a reasonably crowded venue.   

Some places, like Broadway theaters, are requiring people to be fully vaccinated and wear masks in order to attend.  Some employers are requiring works to be vaccinated,  All indoor venues, except those that are essential, should have this requirement.   This includes airlines.   And if they aren't essential, all visitors must be required to wear a mask. 

3.   No news on the climate change front.   We continue to experience increased numbers of and severity of natural disasters, whether it's heat, rain, flooding, drought, wildfires, etc.   As with the virus, too many people take no responsibility for their actions and efforts by the government will have minimal impact, and too late.   We are it seems past the tipping point and the only question is how bad will it get.   That's the only thing we/government can impact now. 

So we as a country and as a government are in a stalemated, holding, pattern.   It is in all regards a sad state of affairs.   Whatever euphoria and hope there was after Trump lost the election are long since gone.   For the foreseeable future,  posts will come when matters warrant or there is some important observation to make.

What Does The 2020 Election Say About Our Country?

We just had a presidential election.   The result, Biden won.   It was a decisive win, both regarding the popular vote and the electoral college, even with some states still not decided.   

But, 70 million people voted for Trump, only 4 million less than voted for Biden. 70 million Americans voted for a man who is a narcissistic bully.   Who, because of his inability to think beyond himself, allowed the coronavirus to devastate our country and kill more than 200,000 people, which has in turn ruined the financial well-being of millions and weakened the economy.   A man who has no morals, no ethics. 

What does this election result say about our country?  There is good news and bad news. 

First the good news.  This country is peopled for the most part with good people, across the board.   People who, like everyone, have their own problems and their own perspective on things, but who have some understanding of right and wrong.   People who are often silent; who mind their own business.   Thankfully, the majority is not so wounded that they are open to the pandering illusions and lies of a demagogue. 

Against this backdrop, a higher percentage of Americans voted in this election than in the past 120 years.   Millions of people who normally don't vote cast a vote, understanding what was at stake.   They knew that this election was not about whether a Republican or Democrat lives in the White House.   It was not about whether Republicans or Democrats control the Senate.   This election was about saving this country from the grip of a madman, saving the country's soul as well as its health and financial well-being.

The normally-silent majority has spoken, and as Kamala Harris said in her victory speech, they have saved us.  Tuesday, after the election was called for Biden, when I drove downtown in this small village in the Massachusetts Berkshires, there was an older woman standing on a corner holding a sign high which simply said, "Free."  Well put.   I feel like alternating between MLK's famous, "Free at last.  Thank God Almighty we are free at last." and the song from the Wizard of Oz, "Ding, dong, the witch is dead. "

Biden will have many challenges facing him.   But I have faith that he will develop effective policies and through the force of his decency, personality, and history will be able to elicit cooperation from enough Republicans that he will be able to govern with bipartisan support.   Hard to imagine after the past 12 years. 

But now for the bad news.   70 million Americans voted for Trump.   Given his mishandling of the pandemic, the economy, and his personality, that's a lot more than one would have expected.   

Trump's base is usually stated as a third of the electorate, so around 50 million voters.   Half of that base is made up of evangelical Christians.   We know from APVoteCast, that about 25 million evangelical Christians (8 in 10 evangelical voters) continued to support him.   Why?   Because he had changed the makeup of the Federal judicial bench and the Supreme Court to an extent that they never in their wildest dreams felt was possible.   The culture wars were of singular importance to them.   His failures as a person, his lack of morals, his treatment of women were not even of secondary concern.

The other 25 million of his base are people who have been so wounded that they were ripe for his pandering to their hurt and their fears, and the force of his charisma.  They cheered the gusto with which he stuck his finger in the eyes of the intellectual elite and the Democratic Party, who they view as responsible for their suffering.  Like all followers of demagogues, they see no truth other than his truth.  His enemy is their enemy. 

Why is this?  Trump is in style if not in fact a dictator demagogue.   And such leaders have historically received huge support, even in the face of disaster.   This occurs because in each case, the demagogue speaks out against something that greatly harmed the people.   

In this instance, the fervor of Trump's support mirrors the depths of despair and betrayal middle-class whites felt and feel towards the Democratic Party.  And towards the Establishment and government in general.   We, the Democratic Party, have failed our own people.   Despite warnings, we were not attuned to it.  I think Biden is very aware of this.

But what about the other 20 million people who voted for Trump?   From accounts I've read, many of these were people, traditional Republicans, who had only one concern . . .  the economy and their financial well-being.   And they felt, as Republicans always do, that a Republican will handle the economy better than a Democrat.   No matter who this Republican was.   No matter that scores of traditional Republican political leaders, military men, and public servants said that for the good of the country Trump must be defeated. 

If you look at Trump's support, these were all single-issue groups whose only concern was their own well-being.   Evangelical Christians were only concerned that they win the culture wars: that abortion would be prohibited and the LGBT community be deprived of any rights.   The white working-class just felt aggrieved and supported someone who spoke for them.   And financial conservatives just don't trust Democrats with the economy. 

The job facing the Biden administration is huge.   Not only does he have to free us from the pandemic and restore the economic health of millions . . .  and that's just to get us back to baseline.   He has to deal with the issues of income inequality, racial injustice, climate change, and the list goes on. 

But he also has to restore the faith of most Americans in the American social contract.  Simply stated, that we are all Americans, that we as citizens have rights but also have responsibilities to our fellow citizens, and that because so many lack opportunity because of the circumstances they are born into and have little control over, government has a role in leveling the playing field to insure that all Americans have the opportunity to fully engage in '"the pursuit of happiness."

And he has to give meaning to our oath that we are "one nation, under God."  Has anyone thought what that implies?   This is not about going to church.   The main implications center, I believe, on how we treat our fellow man. 

This was the aspiration the founders stated in the Declaration of Independence, "that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights."  It means that we treat people humanely, with respect.   It means that everyone deserves  an equal opportunity to make a life for themselves; what they make of that opportunity is then their responsibility.   And it is government that is tasked to "secure those rights," securing equal opportunity, as stated again in the Declaration of Independence. 

Whether we as a nation pull together over the next four years, or whether we continue the internecine fights of the Trump years, will determine our future.   We will either thrive or we will destroy ourselves.

 

The Shamelessness of Republicans Knows No Bounds

The election is over.   Putting aside the recount in Georgia and the undecided status of North Carolina, and for some media outlets, Arizona, Biden clearly has won the election.   Even if Trump ended up winning all the remaining states, which he won't, Biden still wins.   And the margin of victory in the swing states is such that whatever Trump tries to do in the courts will not change the result.   Come December 14 when the electoral college votes, Biden will officially be President-Elect and that will be that.

So how to account for the vast majority of congressional Republicans refusing to acknowledge Biden's victory?  By historical standards, this was not a particularly close election.  This defiant posture is unheard of. 

There is only one answer.   Despite the fact that Trump lost, he didn't lose big.   He still obviously has the devotion of almost half the U.S. electorate, and so he still has a lot of power.   Power to decide future political races if he so chooses, and it looks like he wants to remain a force.  And every Republican in Congress wants to be reelected.

And so just as during the past four years, Republican officials bow to Trump and do nothing to cross him  And this could well be the scenario for the next four years. 

What does this mean for Biden's presidency?  It means that he can't count on his personal relationship with Republican senators making any difference to their actions.   It means he cannot figure on even a modest level of  bi-partisan support for his programs.   

It means that if the two run-offs in Georgia do not result in two Democratic senators and a tied Senate with the Vice President breaking the tie, Biden will not be able to get his programs through Congress.   So the importance of these run-offs cannot be overstated. 

Even defeated, out of office, Trump will continue to wreak havoc on our country.   It is beyond depressing. 

How Does Biden Defeat This Incumbent President?

What does Joe Biden need to do to defeat Trump in November? And hopefully not just squeaking by but by trouncing him.

First, the President has the bully pulpit, and never has that phrase been more apt than in the case of Donald Trump.  Biden has to figure out a way, in this age of pandemic with social restrictions, to give himself a public presence, to make him a leader for the American people.  He must develop his own bully pulpit.

Videos from his basement don’t hack it!  Yes, he can’t hold rallies and many of the usual things that candidates do.  

But he can hold press conferences … live ones … that reporters will cover.  Certainly on the issue of how to respond to the pandemic, he has ample reason to hold a regularly scheduled weekly news conferences to criticize what Trump is doing or not doing, tell the people what needs to happen and what he would do if President.  Like his plan for the Federal government taking over responsibility for testing and contact tracing … which was announced in a post on Medium and hardly noticed.  There is so much confusion surrounding the virus and opening up, the people would welcome a sane, trustworthy voice on these issues.

He can also use press conferences to announce his policy positions on other important matters linked to his criticism of Trump administration actions or policies.  There is no shortage of weekly items that highlight how Trump is destroying policies that were meant to protect the average person … health care, environmental roll-backs, the post office, to name just a few.  And that would give Biden the opportunity to showcase his own policies, not just to protect the status quo but to improve protections for the average person.

One caveat:  do not in general campaign against Trump the person.  Data show that most people are not as upset about Trump the person as liberals and especially progressives are.  Especially since Biden needs to attract people who voted for Trump, attacking Trump the person becomes viewed as attacking the people who voted for him.  So stick to attacking Trump’s policies.

In taking himself to the people, he has to keep in mind four key audiences:  white voters without a college degree, people of color both Black and Latino, and young voters.  If Biden is to win, let alone win handily, he must achieve a large turnout of voters in all four groups.  Luckily, everything that Biden should be saying, all the policies he should be promoting, he can say to all these audiences.  But he needs to make sure that in addition to talking about the big overarching issues, he addresses the needs of each of these constituencies directly.

One of the ways he can do this is to go and speak to them directly.  Yes, again, he cannot hold rallies.  But he can have news conferences around the country, in different type of locales that emphasize the inclusive nature of his policies.  He can hold these conferences in rust-belt areas, in urban Black ghettos and urban Latino ghettos, on college campuses.  And he should hold them in rural areas to emphasize that Democratic policies are good for rural areas; they aren’t just about helping the urban poor.

What’s disturbing is that either Biden has surrounded himself with a week campaign crew, because none of these what I think are obvious tactics are happening, which is what I think is what’s going on, or the less likely possibility that he just isn’t comfortable doing what needs to be done, other than through ads.  That would be unfortunate.

Whatever.  If he is not by his nature the man for this time, than those around him have to goose him up to become the type of man needed for this time.  The future of our country depends on it, and I am not saying that lightly.  Another four years of Trump would be devastating.   Even a nail-bitingly-close election would be harmful because it would indicate that the country as a whole was still terribly divided, not ready to move forward to do what’s necessary to truly make America great again.

Where Is Joe Biden?

Joe Biden is running a strange campaign.  Since the COVID-19 restrictions, he has not been seen in public as far as I know.  He seems to feel that he has no options other than virtual ones and that he is already a well-enough known persona who people trust that he can beat Trump.  And if he looks at the polls, he can take comfort in them.

But there is a real risk in his losing the election if he does not step up to the plate and present his leadership chops to the American people.

First of all, he does have an option.  Both because of the pandemic and his de facto position as the Democratic nominee, he could hold a weekly news conference to present his take on what is happening, what should be happening, what he would do if he were president.  

He needs to show the American people the kind of leadership he would provide.  Which as a side benefit would make Trump look bad without saying a derogatory word.  Maybe he’s getting advice that Trump’s digging his own grave, so stay silent.  I think that’s bad advice.

Second, while he may win if people want to vote for the nice guy rather than Mr. Crazy, he won’t win big, which is what we need to take back the Senate, without him providing a strong force for the country to look to for leadership.  Joe Biden needs to show the public that he has balls.  

Third, Biden needs to show that while he is a unifier and can work with the opposition, he is not just “let’s all shake hands and be friends.”  He has got to show that he doesn’t have Obama’s key flaw, which was to think that the Republicans can be brought to the table as reasonable people; be nice to them and they’ll be nice to you.  Times have changed.  He needs to show determination and fighting spirit on the important issues of the day.

Finally, although he has now addressed the sexual assault allegation made by a former staffer, what he said isn’t enough.  Although The New York Times in reporting the allegation took no position as to whether the incident occurred or not, it did give the allegation status, especially since there is a confirmed contemporaneous statement to a friend about the incident.  

There are many problems with her story, but those are not dispositive.  Then there’s the timing, she changed her story from touching to assault just after Biden de facto won the nomination.  Hmm?  Yes, he’s never been accused of a violent or gross assault.   People who do such things do them serially, so the fact that no one else has come forward with an allegation makes it unlikely.  But that also isn’t enough.

Biden needs to get past the “she said, he said” dynamic.  What he needs to do is offer to take a lie detector test and make the test public.  He should also demand that Reade take a lie detector test.  While lie detector tests are not admissible as evidence in a court of law, they are in the court of public opinion.  

He has to get past this.  He may think it’s not going to matter for most people, even most women, but it just has to matter to enough to change some close states for him to lose the election.

Plus Biden needs to show that he has grown in stature with age.  He is not just another politician who is good at glib non-responses to serious questions.  He needs to show that he truly understands the seriousness of people’s concern about such matters and that he is willing to put himself at risk to prove his innocence.

Biden was not my candidate.  Others had better personalities and agendas for our time.  But Biden is a good man and will start the process of bringing our country out of the depths of degradation it has seen and into the light.

Republican Flimflammery

Not surprisingly Republicans have put on their witness wish list Hunter Biden.  But his testimony is irrelevant to the issue at hand … whether Trump is guilty of abusing his power.

Even if Biden was guilty of conspiracy, that would have no bearing on whether Trump committed an impeachable offense by withholding foreign aid unless the Ukraine investigated a political opponent, Biden.

And so the witness request should be denied, for this clearly stated reason.  If Republicans really want to pursue the matter, they should refer it to the Justice Department, which is the appropriate forum.