We Must Stop the Virus NOW

Most of the country – both governments and people – has diddled over the course of the last 17 months while the virus has taken its toll, surged again, taken its toll, and surged again.  With the availability of effective vaccines last January (I hate to say it, but thanks to Trump's urgency), we all breathed a sigh of relief, knowing that if the vast majority of people get vaccinated, the virus would be stopped, even if not eliminated. 

But there was a major problem with this scenario:  almost half the people did not want to get vaccinated for one reason or another.   Whether the reason was political, misinformation, or fear, the result is the same.   And despite the best efforts of government and NGOs to turn this around, nothing to date has been effective. 

The only solution, short of declaring a national health emergency and forcing everyone to get vaccinated, is to separate the vaccinated from the unvaccinated to the extent possible.   Requiring a vaccine passport to enter any indoor establishment that is not essential, including airplanes.   For essential indoor venues, like grocery stores, it means mandating masks for everyone..

Airplanes must be included because if you look at the New York Times hot spot map, what is clearly happening in the coastal south is that unvaccinated tourists are bringing the virus to resort areas and from there it is spreading.    To control unvaccinated people driving to resort areas, hotels must be told to require proof of vaccination (that was done in New England earlier in the pandemic).

This must be done nationally, not left to the states.  And it must be done now.   States like Texas and Florida are actually prohibiting both vaccine mandates and mask mandates by local governments.   There  can be no hesitation.   We know what hesitation brings.  Actually, we have already hesitated again and the horse is out of the barn, but the virus can still be corralled. 

If people continue to choose not to get vaccinated, then they cannot be allowed to infect others.  This is not about their freedom not to get vaccinated to protect themselves; it's about their not having the freedom to infect others.    They must pay the price for their socially irresponsible behavior by being segregated. 

Coronavirus Became a Pandemic Because of Man’s Hubris and Man's Lack of Individual Responsibility

As the New Year began, the first cases of coronavirus were reported in China.  Three months later, it is in the process of ravaging countries around the globe and creating economic havoc.  We are once again reminded of the power of natural forces and of man’s grandiosity in thinking that it doesn’t have to take them seriously.

Man could have prevented the pandemic.  Had a doctor in China been listened to by the local authorities, it could have been stopped and isolated probably in a small area of China.  Had the Trump administration been prepared following the advice of its own real-time pandemic war game in 2019, had the President and his advisers taken the threat of the virus seriously, we could have isolated the virus spread because it was all coming from outside the U.S.  No shelter-at-home, school closings, or other drastic measures would have been necessary.

But the Chinese local authorities and the Trump administration didn’t because we underestimate the power of nature and our own power, and we dislike inconvenient truths.  Both were guilty of hubris.  And so after 3 months, the world’s health and economy is in shambles, and will get worse before it gets better, despite all the money spent by governments to try and mitigate the damage.

More importantly, the lives of ordinary citizens have been terribly impacted, not only by the deaths, but by the financial devastation caused by the economic engine slowing almost to a halt.  Yes, they’ve also been inconvenienced by the lockdowns or “shelter-at-home” orders, but that inconvenience is small relative to the financial peril that many families are facing.

And because we are dealing with out-of-control nature, we really have no idea where it will end.  Perhaps after 2 months of stringent controls, local new cases will almost stop as in China and life can begin to return to normal.  But with the meager testing and tracking that even today is available in the U.S. compared to China and other countries, it is quite possible that the stringent controls will not be sufficient and new cases will continue to mount as infected but asymptomatic or mild-symptom people move about, albeit in a limited way.  A slight loosening of the restrictions without adequate testing and tracking could make matters even worse.

It is possible that the world will never be the same.  All we can do at this point is take one day at a time, stay calm, and do everything we can as individuals to not spread the virus.  

If everyone takes responsibility, this still could be contained despite the failed attempts of our government.  If you feel that you may possibly have the virus, get tested immediately, and if testing is not available, self-isolate and assume you are infected until you are proven to be well.  If you have come into contact with someone who is infected, self-isolate for 14 days.  

Practice good hygiene and wear a face mask when coming in contact with others in public spaces.  This last point applies to everyone, both infected and healthy … you wear a mask to not infect others, and you wear a mask to keep from getting infected.  If masks are not available, make your own from instructions available on the internet or use a scarf.

Although we’ve been told by the government and scientists for months that masks aren’t effective for the general population, the CDC and others are now urging that everyone should wear masks, as they do in Asian countries that have been more successful in containing the virus.  Just think of all the asymptomatic infected people walking around, unwittingly transferring the virus to others because they aren’t wearing a face mask.  Especially with limited testing availability.  That asymptomatic person could be you.

This will require a different leadership from the top than we have seen so far.  It is only individual people who can spread or stop the virus.  That point needs to be made very clearly.  And citizens must be called upon to play their part in this war.

Trump's Responsibility for U.S. Exposure to the Pandemic

Yes, Trump is responsible.  How has Trump failed each and every one of us, just as regards the coronavirus pandemic?  Let me count the ways.

1. In 2018, the Trump administration dismantled a group with the National Security Council charged with preparing for when, not if, another pandemic would hit the nation.  When it came, we were unprepared.
2. Last September, the Trump administration eliminated the position of a CDC expert embedded in the Chinese disease control agency.  She would have known almost immediately when the virus was first reported internally to the Chinese agency and allowed the U.S. and all governments to move much faster.  Instead, at least a month was lost, as well as us being dependent on Chinese information rather than having our own person on the ground.  (See Reuters report, March 22, 2020)  When it came, we were unprepared.
3. Last September, the White House Council of Economic Advisors released a report that stated that the economic damage of a pandemic influenza would be $413 billion to $3.79 trillion, with up to 500,000 deaths and between 670,000 and 4.3 million requiring hospitalization.  When it came, we were unprepared.
4. Last October, the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services reported on a pandemic simulation it conducted in real time between January and August 2019 on a fictional respiratory virus that began in China and quickly spread around the world by air travelers.  The results were catastrophic:  11 million Americans infected, 586,000 dead.  The draft report on “Crimson Orange,” the code-name for the exercise, showed how underfunded, underprepared, and uncoordinated the federal government was for this eventuality.  A final report appears not to have been issued and the Trump administration took no action based on the report.  When it came we were unprepared.
5. Once China reported in early January that there was a new coronavirus that had infected hundreds of people (the first case actually appeared in mid-November but the virus wasn’t identified until late December), given the fast and vast potential for the virus’ spreading, Trump should have immediately started temperature screening all flights arriving from China, and all passengers arriving from other countries who had been in China during the previous month.  That would have prevented, or at least greatly limited, the spread of the virus to the United States.  
6. Instead, travel restrictions from China were imposed on January 31, prohibiting all who had been in China within the past 2 weeks from entering, except for U.S citizens. Unfortunately, in the previous month, roughly 300,000 people entered the U.S. from China, so the virus was already among us.  Americans could inexplicably still go back and forth to China with no restrictions.
7. Despite his own administration’s pandemic report (which as stated above was never finalized), Trump continued to minimize the risk to the U.S., citing the small number of cases.
8. The U.S. was unprepared for a necessary massive testing and contact tracing effort.  For some reason, no one with any clout in the administration seemed to realize early on the critical nature of massive testing and follow-up tracing and quarantine to containing the virus.   But his is Infection Disease 101; basic.  Across-the-board social restrictions would slow but not stop the virus.  The emphasis seems to be on insuring we have enough medical supplies, ventilators, etc.  That is certainly important.  But testing and tracing (which requires a large labor force) is critical.  Yet the testing gap is hardly mentioned.  Though it is on Dr. Fauci’s mind.
9. The administration, and admittedly most scientists, told the American public that if they were healthy they would not benefit from wearing surgical/construction face masks and should not wear medical N95 masks because they were limited in number and needed to be reserved for health-care workers and those who were infected.  Of course there was a run on masks of any type regardless.  But still, you see almost no one wearing any type of mask.  

           Recently, The New York Times reported that some U.S. scientists are saying that 

           even regular masks can be helpful because some protection is better than none.  A 

           lead Chinese scientist has said that a major problem is that people in the U.S and 

           other countries are not wearing masks.  And the latest, the CDC is reviewing 

           whether to recommend broad use of masks because of asymptomatics' spreading 

           the virus.

           Masks serve 2 functions.  If you are infected or possibly infected, the N95 mask 

           traps droplets in the mask so others won’t be infected; the regular masks at least 

           interfere with the emission of droplets, some protection again being better than 

           none.  If you are healthy, even the simple masks provide at least some protection 

           from droplets and also make it less likely you will touch your mouth and nose while 

           you are out and your hands have not been washed.

Looking back on this chain of events, there is no question that Donald Trump, and his administration, are responsible for the rampant spread of coronavirus in the U.S.  Both by acts of omission and commission, Trump has left the country totally exposed to this pandemic and we the people will as a result suffer in innumerable ways.